Case 333 - Crisis in Dominion: An Information and Intelligence Assessment

Auerswald, David P.

This simulation is geared for a 60-to-90-minute seminar in courses on intelligence analysis, ethnic conflict, humanitarian interventions, or foreign policy decision-making. The case study asks participants to assess ambiguous and possibly contradictory information from a variety of raw and finished sources, and then explore what sorts of questions a consumer of information should ask of the intelligence community.

The fictional crisis unfolds in three informal stages in the fictional country of Dominion. The first describes negotiations to settle the civil war there. The second stage begins when the presidents of Dominion and a neighboring state are assassinated, sparking the re-emergence of a simmering ethnic conflict between the region's two main ethnic groups. The third charts the devolution of the country into renewed civil war, with questions as to which side is engaging in atrocities and which external actors might be supporting each side.

NOTE: This case is also available in an Arabic translation.